Current World Environment

The decision support tool viz. SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) was used to downscale climate data of future years for Kashmir province of Jammu & Kashmir state. The 21^st century projected data for the A1B scenario was adjusted by using observed climatic data recorded during the period 1985-2015 for the region. The data from the same period was taken as the baseline for the analysis. This data was thereon analyzed for monthly, seasonal, cropping season and annual periods to enumerate the variation of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in Kashmir valley of Jammu & Kashmir state in the 21^st century. The modelled data obtained exhibited no significant change in maximum and minimum temperature for the period 2021-2050 but for the same period increase in annual precipitation was exhibited. For the period2051-2100, decreasing trend of annual temperature was exhibited whereas for annual precipitation, an increasing trend was exhibited.